Two charts show what kind of naive optimism that dominates the institutional brains of policy apparatuses like IMF, EC etc. First the downward revisions of IMF’s forecasts about the GDP of selected euro zone countries:

IMF forecast

And another of those charts that make you palm-slap your forehead. The Troika’s forecasts about development in Greece:

Troika Forecast for Greece

Next time there’s this ‘the emperor’s new clothes’-moment when some official at a press-conference is trying to calm everybody with some voodoo-like forecast-optimism remember this passage from Orwell’s novel:

The Party said that Oceania had never been in alliance with Eurasia. He, Winston Smith, knew that Oceania had been in alliance with Eurasia as short as four years ago. But where did that knowledge exist? Only in his own consciousness, which in any case must soon be annihilated. And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed–if all records told the same tale–then the lie passed into history became the truth. ‘Who controls the past,’ ran the Party slogan, ‘controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.’ 1

  1. Orwell, George (2008 [1949]). 1984. London: Penguin. p. 37.